全球变暖是自然因素还是人为因素？

今年以来，世界各地超级寒潮、洪水危机、泥石流等自然灾害在全球范围内频发。今年夏天北美遭遇持续高温、西欧和东亚暴雨洪水、西伯利亚、东地中海的森林野火。面对地球向人类发出的数次警报，人类该如何应对？

Since the beginning of this year, super cold waves, flood crises, mudslides and other natural disasters have occurred frequently around the world. This summer has seen high temperatures in North America, heavy rains and floods in Western Europe and East Asia, and wildfires in Siberia and the eastern Mediterranean. How should humans respond to these warnings from our mother nature?

报告认为，近期地球气候的变化“史无前例”，并称这明确归咎于人类活动。2018年的一份中期报告称，2030年至2052年期间，全球变暖可能比工业化前的水平高出1.5摄氏度。而这份报告将这一窗口提前十年，至2021年至2040年之间。

The report shows that recent changes in the earth’s climate as “unprecedented” and says they are clearly attributable to human activity. An interim report in 2018 said global warming could rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052. The report brings that window forward a decade, to between 2021 and 2040.

高温、严重干旱、洪水……今年，全球多地出现多起极端天气事件。酿成多起悲剧，场景触目惊心，令人担忧。

High temperatures, severe droughts, floods… There have been a number of extreme weather events in many parts of the world this year. There were many tragedies that raised horror and concern.

全球都面临着气候变化所带来的危机。无独有偶，近日，德国和比利时的洪灾已经造成至少170人死亡。在北美洲，罕见的高温天气刷新纪录，加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省高温连续三天破纪录，最高达到49.6 °C ，这个温度也是加拿大有记录以来的最高温度，579人因此高温天气死亡。持续的高温天气也使得美国西部12个州有超过70场山火蔓延，多州进入紧急状态。北极圈内也在上个月出现了罕见高温，俄罗斯北冰洋沿岸北纬73度的气象站在6月30日气温升至34.3 °C，大幅刷新北冰洋沿岸地区最高气温纪录、较常年同期偏暖25 °C以上。除此之外，在科威特，气温高达 72.3 °C。西亚、北非、西班牙遭受着创纪录的热浪……

The world is facing a crisis caused by climate change. Similarly, floods in Germany and Belgium have killed at least 170 people in recent days. In North America, the unusually hot weather set new records. British Columbia in Canada set a record high of 49.6 °C for a third consecutive day, the highest temperature ever recorded in Canada, resulting in 579 deaths. The ongoing heat wave has also led to more than 70 wildfires burning in 12 western states, prompting states of emergency. The Arctic Circle also saw a rare high temperature last month. On June 30, the temperature of a meteorological station at 73 degrees north latitude on Russia’s Arctic Coast rose to 34.3 °C, breaking the record for the highest temperature in the Coastal areas of the Arctic Ocean and being more than 25 °C warmer than usual. In addition, in Kuwait, the temperature reached 72.3 °C. West Asia, North Africa, Spain are suffering from record heat waves…

塞纳维拉特纳指出：“气候变化对极端炎热天气的影响尤其明显。”她指出，这些热浪已经“在世界范围内变得更加强烈和频繁”。这在加拿大或西班牙都可以看到，正如去年9月西班牙国家气象局的一份报告所指出的那样，监测发现热浪在西班牙已经变得更常见、更持久、更强劲。

Sonia Senaweeratne, a climatologist at the Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences in Zurich said “The impact of climate change on extreme hot weather is particularly noticeable.” She noted that these heat waves have “become more intense and frequent around the world.” This could be seen in Canada or Spain, where heat waves have become more common, more persistent and more intense, as a report from Spain’s national weather Agency noted last September.

极端高温是气候危机最明显的痕迹之一，但平均气温也有所上升，已经比工业化前高出1.2摄氏度。但除此之外，地球上有史以来记录的最热年份大部分都集中在过去十年。

Extreme heat is one of the most visible traces of the climate crisis, but average temperatures have also risen, already 1.2c above pre-industrial levels. But other than that, most of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth have been concentrated in the past decade.

当然，热浪并不是气候变化留下的唯一痕迹。其他现象，如暴雨，也正在不断增加强度和破坏力。在最近几天发生在中欧的巨大而致命的洪水之后，同样的问题出现了：这背后的推手是否是全球变暖？“目前很难准确量化气候变化对德国洪水的影响，但这次事件与强降雨有关，”塞纳维拉特纳说，“强降雨事件在世界范围内变得越来越频繁和强烈。因此，很可能是人为引起的气候变化导致这些事件变得更强烈或更可能发生。”

Of course, heat waves aren’t the only vestige of climate change. Other phenomena, such as heavy rain, are also increasing in intensity and destruction. In the wake of the huge and deadly floods in central Europe in recent days, the same question arises: Is global warming behind this? “It is difficult to quantify exactly the impact of climate change on flooding in Germany at the moment, but this event is linked to heavy rainfall,” Senaviratne said. “Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent and intense worldwide. So it’s very likely that human-induced climate change is making these events more intense or more likely.”